This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?

The 1996 McLaren F1 GTR is expected to be sold at auction on August 15, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final "Sold" price for the 1996 McLaren F1 GTR is greater than or equal to the listed price. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

If no sale is completed, or the "Sold" price is not known definitively, by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "No".

The market will resolve according to the final listed "Sold" price on RM Sotheby's (https://rmsothebys.com/auctions/mo26/lots/r0170-1996-mclaren-f1-gtr/).

Note: This market will resolve according to the "Sold" price as reported in USD. If the final “Sold” price is reported by RM Sotheby’s in a different currency, this market will resolve according to the USD value of the sale at the time of final sale.

$35m+

$40m+

$55m+

1996 McLaren F1 GTR Sale Price

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report covering 2026 ranks China as #2 in total art market sales. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, total art market sales refers to both dealer and auction segments. If China is tied with another country for second greatest total art market sales, this market will resolve to "Yes".

This market will resolve according to the annual Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report covering the 2026 calendar year. If no such report is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Will China become the #2 global art market in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi" is displayed in a publicly accessible exhibition or permanent gallery installation at any museum, gallery, or cultural institution by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, "publicly accessible" is defined as a location to which members of the general public can purchase tickets or otherwise gain admission to view the listed artwork. 

Private viewings, VIP previews, displays at auction house pre-sale exhibitions, displays at art fairs, displays of photographs or reproductions of the work, or displays of digital or NFT versions of the work will NOT be sufficient to qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

This market will resolve according to official press releases from exhibiting institutions, or credible reporting from The Art Newspaper, Artnet News, or The New York Times.

Will the Salvator Mundi be publicly exhibited by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Banksy authenticates a new mural or outdoor street artwork between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only works created between market creation and December 31, 2026 will qualify. Artworks created before this market's timeframe but revealed or posted within this market's timeframe will not qualify. 

A qualifying mural or street artwork must be outdoors on a structure or surface other than a canvas. Paintings on canvases or other surfaces designed for art, such as paper or board, will not qualify.

This market will resolve according to confirmation from official Banksy channels including his official Instagram account (@banksy) or official website (banksy.co.uk). Authentication from third-party reporting, gallery attribution, or social media speculation will not be sufficient to resolve this market.

Will Banksy create a new mural or street artwork by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report scheduled to be published in 2027 reports total global art market sales for 2026 as $65 billion or greater. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

For the purposes of this market, total global art market sales refers to the sales of both dealers and auctions. 

If the 2027 Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report recording 2026 art market sales is not published by March 31, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

The resolution source for this market will be the official Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report as published at artbasel.com. 

Will global art market sales hit $65 billion for 2026?

This market will resolve according to the name of the listed artist who is ranked #1 in global fine art auction turnover for the 2026 calendar year according to the Artprice Annual Report covering 2026. 

If the Artprice Annual Report is not published by March 31, 2027, 11:59PM ET, or does not include a ranked list of top-selling artists by turnover, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve according to the Artprice Annual Report, scheduled for release in early 2027, available at
artprice.com or artmarket.com. 