This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.

A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.

Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

May 25

May 27

May 26

Trump insult on

Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump dances between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

"Dancing" is defined as deliberate, rhythmic body movement typically matched music or a beat, such as swaying, stepping, or coordinated hand or body motions. Casual gesturing, clapping, or incidental body movement will not qualify. Dancing without the presence of music or a beat will qualify.

AI-generated content, deepfakes, or altered footage will not be considered. 

Videos posted on his social media, which were filmed outside this market's time frame, will not qualify.

This market will resolve based on video footage.

May 31

May 30

Will Trump dance on...?

This market will resolve "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order on the specified calendar date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only formal executive orders will qualify; other executive actions will not qualify.

This market will immediately resolve "Yes" if the text of an executive order for the given day is published on the White House page for presidential actions (https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/) or the White House press pool. Mere announcements will not qualify.

If no executive order is published by 12:00 PM ET the day after the listed date of this market, this market will resolve to “No”.

In the case of ambiguity this market may remain open until it is confirmed by the federal register.

May 28

Will Trump sign an executive order on...?

A "full lid" at the White House is an official announcement indicating that the President's public activities for the day have concluded and no further public events, appearances, or news are expected.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the White House Press Office calls a full lid by 6:30 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only a full lid will qualify; lunch lids, intermissions, or any other press lid not explicitly listed as a full lid will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution.

This market will resolve according to the time listed by Roll Call of the first full lid called in the daily calendar (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/). If Roll Call does not list a lid time or is for any reason unavailable, this market will resolve according to Forth (https://www.forth.news/whpool).

White House call a full lid

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM? (May 25 - 30)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is photographed in a tagged editorial photo on Getty Images on every day between May 25, 2026, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

To qualify for a given date, the photo must list that date in Getty Images’ “Date created” field and be uploaded by 11:59 PM ET on the calendar day after this market’s final specified date.

The images or video must be authentic, not the result of artificial intelligence or editing. If a tagged photo does not actually depict Donald Trump, or is materially mis-tagged (for example, with the wrong date), it will not qualify. 

Example of a date with no qualifying photos: April 4, 2026.

The resolution source for this market will be Getty Images (https://www.gettyimages.com.mx/search/2/image?family=editorial&sort=newest&specificpeople=118600).